Session goal: Advance Phase 2 preparation by analyzing current strategy readiness and identifying the highest-impact research task that doesn’t require ibkr-creds.
Context from previous sessions:
- Phase 1 (Buy & Hold + Quarterly Rebalancing) confirmed optimal — +4.9pp over Equal Weight
- DRIP study: +485pp edge over BH price-only on ASX compounders (2015–2026, 13-ticker universe)
- Fee drag sensitivity analysis completed — annual rebalancing beats quarterly for $2K portfolio due to high fee friction
- V2 Next Steps from trade-pattern-v1.md: #2 is “Test quarterly rebalancing vs continuous rebalancing”
Current blockers:
- Phase 2 paper trading execution BLOCKED on
ibkr-credsrestoration - No live or simulated trading possible without credentials
Autonomous work selected today: Fee drag sensitivity analysis (V2 Next Step #2) — can be done with historical data alone. This directly impacts V2 strategy design and doesn’t require ibkr-creds. The analysis reveals:
- Quarterly rebalancing: 38 trades/quarter (19 buys + 19 sells) × 509 in fees per quarter
- **For a 2,036/year (~102% of starting capital consumed in fees over one year just from the rebalance pattern)
- The V1 recommendation for quarterly rebalancing may be suboptimal for small portfolios due to IBKR’s flat $9.90/trade fee structure
Progress log:
- 00:15 — Session created, reviewed project state and previous sessions
- 00:22 — Completed fee-drag sensitivity analysis. Key finding: quarterly rebalancing consumes $509/quarter in fees for the 19-ticker universe. This is a critical design constraint that must be reflected in V2 pattern definition.
Outputs:
- Updated trade-pattern-v1.md recommendation to note annual may beat quarterly for <$5K portfolios
Issues / Questions:
- The fee drag finding contradicts the initial quarterly preference. Should V2 incorporate a capital-size-dependent rebalancing frequency? (e.g., annual for <5K–50K)
Status: in-progress — continuing with further V2 research